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Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Probability: Coin Tossing

A while back I helped a student with a probability problem, and I took the problem, generalized it a bit, and wish to post it here. Here is the problem:

A coin has the probability p of turning up heads when tossed. Suppose we toss the coin 2n times, where n is a natural number. Compute the probability that the total number of heads is even.

Let P(X) be the probability that the total number of heads is even and P(Y) be the probability that the total number of heads is odd.

Because we know it is certain that the total number of heads is even OR odd, we may state:

P(X)+P(Y)=1

Using the binomial probability formula, and the binomial theorem, we get:

\displaystyle P(X)-P(Y)=\sum_{k=0}^{2n}\left[{2n \choose k}p^{2n-k}(p-1)^k \right]=(2p-1)^{2n}

Adding, we find:

\displaystyle 2P(X)=1+(2p-1)^{2n}

Hence:

\displaystyle P(X)=\frac{1}{2}\left(1+(2p-1)^{2n} \right)

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